The Right is all atwitter at the thought of seeing Rep. Charlie Rangel and Rep Maxine Waters go through a public ethics trial in the House of Representatives this September.  Like sharks that smell blood in the water, they think they are heading for a vote feeding frenzy in November and Rangel and Waters are the first course.  By linking House Democrats to these two that are so obviously  corrupt and ethically challenged, they are hoping that this political windfall will make campaigning simpler and their conquest of the House that much easier.

But all is not as it seems.  I think this is an effort by the Democrats to stage a come-from-behind campaign to forestall a Republican takeover.  You may think I’m crazy, but consider the following.

If Rangel somehow manages to win, but the Republicans take the House, he will get prosecuted much vigorously than if Democrats win.  There would be no talk of deals.  He knows this, as does Pelosi.  Rangel is also 80 and very much a party man.  If he were to fall on the sword now, before the election, and the Democrats win, they will take care of him.  While he may lose his seat and assuredly face some public humiliation that would pretty much the limit of his punishment.    This same scenario also applies to Waters, although I think it less likely that she would be convicted considering she’s only 72 and has only served 20 years in the House.

Now, I hope I didn’t lose you back there when I wrote “if Democrats win”.  You probably think they have a snowball’s chance of pulling it off.  I hope that too.  But in 2006, one of Pelosi’s campaign promises was to “drain the swamp” in Washington.  She clarified that analogy last week and said that it referred to the relationship between majority Republicans and lobbyists, not ethically challenged Democrats.  But, campaign season isn’t fully upon us and most of the nation is off on summer vacation and not paying attention to the political scene yet.  The real campaign season doesn’t start until after all the primaries are completed and candidates are set for the ballot.  Pelosi could be counting on a publically televised ethics hearing in September to turn the tide back to the Democrats.  How?   If they first convict Rangel (and/or Waters) and publically humiliate him, probably with threats of much worse to come, and then campaign on being the party that is brave enough and ethical enough to deal with its own miscreants, they may hope to convince the average voter that they really are serious about change in Washington.

Neither party has put one of its own on trial in a while, especially right before an election.  While it would all be for show and Rangel and Waters would certainly retire in comfort, the Democrats would have a whole month to campaign on being the party willing to take out the trash, the party that drained the swamp, the party cleaning up Washington, or whatever other anti-establishment moniker you can come up with.  To them, perception is everything and if they can somehow recast themselves, if only for election season, as anti-corruption and anti-establishment, that just might be enough to win a few or more elections in November.  Crazier things have happened.

I’ll close with one final admonition to the Republicans.  Don’t take the trials (literal and figurative) of Rangel and Waters as occasion to celebrate or take it easy.   Rather than wage a simple campaign against their corruption, you need to campaign on how you are going to improve government (hopefully be decreasing its size and scope).  Campaigning on positive ideas will win out over yet another season of negative name-calling.